Replies to post #366712 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[Lemoncat]

It's impossible to quantify...which is why we're running the trial.

What do you think the chance of us, or more importantly the FDA/Market, not liking the result is going to be?

75%? 50%? 25%? 10%?

I would consider 10% chance of failure significant in the context of passing on a guaranteed 6x your money. Less so for just holding what I have now.

I say that as someone who has been less than responsible with my portfolio distribution. The proportion of my portfolio in IPIX is irresponsible at best and easily considered insane by most. If you only have 5% of your portfolio in IPIX then I understand why you're OK risking loss to swing for 100x.

Don't agree? Take a look at the money you have invested in IPIX. Now, multiply it by 6. If you were given the option to walk with that number today, or have a 90% chance of doubling it a month from now, what would you do?

Now, ask yourself do you really think we have a 90% chance of success? Rework the question with a 75% or a 50% chance of success. I think a lot more people would take the guaranteed 6x deal than some think.

We are dealing with a disease that has a multi-billion dollar price tag on its head. There has yet to be a challenger that has clobbered COVID soundly. What do you really believe the odds are that Brilacidin is it?

For me it's still about 50%. I also don't think we will do better than 12x ($2.50/share) on the COVID results prior to EUA/Partnership. If you think we're going to $5 or $10 on these phase 2 results that would adjust the calculus as well.

Go IPIX!