I'm not sure I deserve the compliment but here are my thoughts:
JNJ announced Darzalex Q2 sales were $1,433M. My guess is that the conversion rate in US is probably at least 60% but lower in some countries and perhaps SC Darzalex has not even been approved yet in other countries. To keep it simple and I hope I am being conservative, let's say the total conversion rate was 50% and therefore Darzalex FasPro sales were $716.5M, Halo should get between $28.66M (4%) to $35.82M (5%).
Today Roche announced that Phesgo Q2 sales were CHF 96M ($104M) up from CHF 29M in Q1. I don't know what the expectations were but I think it was good news. So, royalties to Halo from Phesgo should be about $5M for Q2.
Herceptin and Mabthera sales continue to decline and were -35% and -41%. I don't know if sales of the SC formulations are declining at the same rate. I'm guessing royalties will be somewhere between $5M and $8M.
Total royalties in Q1 were $36.9M. I am expecting royalties for Q2 will be somewhere between $42M and $48M. Obviously, they will be significantly higher if the conversion rate to SC Darzalex is already 55% or 60% but I don't think that's likely.
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