Conclusion
Many RedHill investors were likely unnerved by RedHill's sharp drop in 07/2021 capped by heavy volume on 07/15/2021. Why is RedHill falling so fast in July? Does it represent an investment opportunity or a falling knife?
RedHill has potential but to this point has yet to show evidence of an impending breakout. Certainly it's comforting for shareholders that opaganib fueled a 5% price jump today (07/19/21) on increased volume, albeit not quite as great (~718,000 compared to ~949,000) as its 07/15/21 down volume.
RedHill's investment thesis for the next quarter will likely be subsumed by results from its opaganib study. By my reckoning opaganib is a sideshow. If these results are positive it will likely offer a profit taking opportunity. If they are negative and shares decline it will present a buying opportunity.
RedHill's longer term thesis as it works to build its pipeline, and to grow its revenues while it finally shakes itself free from the pandemic overhang make up its far more interesting story. It is one which will play out over a period of years, not weeks or even quarters. Such longer term story is the one that has my focus. It is where RedHill's interesting growth opportunities exist.
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