Yesterday, on reading you had some shares and your thinking/hoping a boost, i remembered one sorta general oft-predictive rule learned decades ago when i was in the market a bit. Am talking non-penny stocks. The more respectable stock market. The general rule which bounced back on reading of your hoped for boost was that the market generally read good news in before the day of the hoped for booster event. Didn't want to say it yesterday, but thought, "shit DD, hope you get that right this time." Then after making the post
to you i didn't resist the temptation to check. Not knowing where you were at yesterday it wouldn't have been cool for me to post what i found, but now that you've said it this is the article i got
Jul 15, 2021,08:30am EDT|3,017 views
Will Virgin Galactic Stock Recover Post The Sell Off?
Trefis Team Contributor Great Speculations Contributor Group Markets
On Sunday, Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE) successfully flew its first fully crewed test flight into suborbital space, carrying its founder, Richard Branson. While the trip is seen as a significant marketing win for the fledgling company, which eventually plans to fly as many as 400 flights per year for space tourists, the stock plummeted by almost 23% over the last two trading days and remains down by about 18% over the last week (five trading days). The declines come as the company filed for a $500 million stock sale with the SEC, in a move that will dilute existing investors. Separately, with the high-profile test flight now done, investors could be looking beyond the viability of Virgin Galactic’s technology and spaceplanes, to the financial prospects of its commercial business. It’s not exactly clear how big the market will be for suborbital space tours and most numbers thus far appear to be guesstimates. For example, analysts at Cowen estimated that Virgin’s suborbital flights have a total addressable market of roughly 2.4 million people who have a net worth of more than $5 million. It could also take years for the company to turn a profit, meaning that capital raises might have to continue over the next few years to fund its operations.
[7/6/2021] Buy Virgin Galactic Stock Ahead Of Richard Branson’s Space Flight?
July promises to be an eventful month for the suborbital space tourism industry. Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE .. https://dashboards.trefis.com/data/companies/spce ), is set to fly its founder Richard Branson to space, as a member of the crew on the next test flight of the Virgin Galactic spaceplane. The trip will come less than two weeks before space startup Blue Origin flies its founder and e-commerce titan Jeff Bezos as part of its first crewed flight on the New Shepard rocket ship. These two high-profile trips are likely to create a lot of buzz for the space tourism industry in general, and Virgin Galactic being the only publicly listed space tourism player, could receive a lot of attention. Moreover, Virgin Galactic is also quite likely to resume taking bookings for its space flights following Mr. Branson’s trip, after having suspended ticket sales back in 2014.
That said, we think all the good news is more than priced-in for Virgin Galactic’s stock, which has rallied by almost 45% over the last month (21 trading days) to levels of around $44 per share. Consensus revenue estimates for 2022 stand at just about $50 million, meaning that the stock trades at over 180x forward revenues. Although the success of a crucial test flight held in May (see update below) and the commercial launch license approval by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration in late June remove much of the uncertainty surrounding Virgin Galactic’s transition from an experimental player to a commercial business, the longer-term growth outlook and the economics of a space business aren’t exactly clear for investors. Share sales by Virgin’s top investors earlier this year, at much lower stock prices, also don’t really inspire confidence. For example, Chamath Palihapitiya, the company’s chairman, divested his entire personal stake in the company at levels of about $34 per share while Mr. Branson sold over 5 million shares at levels of under $30. Separately, investors are likely to continue rotating out of futuristic stocks as the U.S. Federal Reserve turns increasingly hawkish, projecting two rate hikes in 2023. This could also hurt Virgin stock in the coming quarters.
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