Replies to post #238618 on Biotech Values

[willyw]

For those who remember HCV development this is following a similar pattern. Recall;

Vertex introduced Telaprevir which was administered w/ Interferon and RBV. (vertex no longer has a HCV program)

Which was approved at the same time frame as "Victrelis"/Boceprevir also administered w/ IFN/RBV (brought to market by Shering -Plough)
soon joined by
Simeprevir also w/ IFN/RBV (Medivir/Janssen)
and later coupled- off label prescriptions w/ Sofosbuvir.

Then Sofosbuvir/IFN/RBV

then Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir
created a great cure rate- but NOT in all genotypes.

All of these happened in less than a decade. What's left is Harvoni. (Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir- approved 2014)

I was in the first trial and the last; Telaprevir (VX-750) and what would become Harvoni (as they determined dose/duration in Phase 3).

My point is that I think that the Arbutus trial will yield some positive results- but the evidence that they are using interferon suggests that this is NOT the final iteration of success, and in a way is admitting that they don't possess a strong enough antiviral to achieve a formidable treatment.

Almost all of the treatments save Harvoni are gone the way of the buffalo- virtually forgotten, and once approved died as treatments as they were rapidly replaced by shorter, safer and more...far more effective treatments.

When I was in the Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir trial and they told me I was below quantification in one week.... and undetectable at week 2 I was sold.

In none of the treatments for HBV are we seeing that.
I think the components are there to cure more of the easiest to cure and there will be successes---
BUT the early partial successes may be short lived as they are replaced by other rapidly emerging treatments.

I DO think that a cure is within sight, but the time frame will be compacted.
AND the speed that companies ditch development of compounds and treatments may be even quicker as winners come into view.

In summary, IF the ABUS trial sees some success, it doesn't mean disaster for other players. Rather it is a proof of concept that a triple therapy can work.
A superior program - even if it isn't the first- is not only viable but quite possibly unavoidable.