Re: Intel appears to have lost another 1.5% to 2% of market share in the same quarter he said that...
AMD claimed a 19% sequential increase in processor unit shipments, and 26% YoY. What did we assume for last year's production capacity? About 12.5M units? That would imply that AMD has now grown to 15.75M units in Q4 2006. Working backward, that would be about 13.24M units in Q3 2006. For a rough estimate, we can assume Q1 and Q2 averaged about 13M units, since AMD has claimed growth in units every single quarter.
Intel also reported record microprocessor unit sales, but they did not claim how much. That presents a problem, but we do have estimates on how much the market grew from 2005 to 2006. According to Gartner:
PC shipments grew from about 219M in 2005 to 239M in 2006. If we sum up our guess of AMD's unit sales in 2006, we get ~55M units, which is about 23% of the market. Given that AMD previously had 21.4% market share in Q4 2005, it appears as if they have now grown about 1.6% YoY.
But if you want to put me down for a prediction, Joe, I will say that I believe 2006 to be the apex of AMD's market share percentage. They are already looking at a possibly stuffed channel situation, according to some reports, and the pressure put on by Core 2 is only going to get larger. Given that ATI is already weighing down AMD to quarterly losses, just how much do you think AMD will lower prices to gain share?
Then again, maybe they will. Hector Ruiz sounded pretty desperate and fanatical during the earnings conference, and it sounded like he would be willing to swim in all kinds of red ink before he slows down his production ramp. So maybe they will gain another point or 2, and post more half billion dollar losses. Who knows.... I'll stand by my prediction, but I'll be happy to own up to being wrong if AMD gains more market share at the cost of even steeper losses.
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