Replies to post #40943 on Biotech Values

[optimistic skeptic]

Thoughts on RPRX Regarding Trial Size and PhIII

RPRX's PhII Proellex results looked really, really good for the treatment of uterine fibroids.. but it seemed an awfully small sized trial. My concern is that larger trials may show AEs which are often the bane of many a would be drug candidates. Any idea how large the Ph III trials will be and for how long? And how many Ph III trials will be conducted?

The Ph II trials were only conducted for 12 weeks or so near as I could tell. Uterine fibroids are often chronic requiring possible treatment for years and years even decades. How would a product like Proellex perform over term especially with regards to AEs etc? In addition, there appears to be a couple of similar type products that may be a competitor to Proellex looking for approval in the near future as well. I believe it was RU 486 that showed efficacy in the treatment of uterine fibroids.

Any thought or opinions on the above appreciated.

tia

[rfj1862]

RPRX

Spartex,

My estimation of when the trial would report was based on a misinterpretation of the data. It was based on full enrollment as of September 1, which of course we know is not the case (nor did RPRX ever say it was). They were only partly enrolled as of September 1, so say the last patient enrolled was Nov 1, which would put completion at May 1 and report end of May/beginning of June. This timeframe is consistent with what I've seen estimated from more reliable sources than myself.

I've been meaning to update that information. I'll update the RPRX RMF when we get a price for the offering.

Like Dewophile, I'm staying in. I don't know about you but I can't find another $125 M company with a late-stage blockbuster in its pipeline that has close to zero efficacy risk. If anyone has any suggestions I'm listening, because I'm sitting on a bunch of cash in my biotech portfolio in addition to my positions in RPRX, JAV, and NVD.

I was on the 50% before results/25% after results/25% after financing plan (in dollar terms), and I'm sticking with it, although I did do a little trading after the results.

[stogis_ohio]

hello Spartex old friend you would like the RPRX action now it looks like we can bust $13 today.

maybe this new ipo can come off around $15 hey that would be nice