Replies to post #356381 on Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc (ELTP)

[no2koolaid]

One needs to look at the trajectory of CNS revenues with LCI to recognize the lag and that with Elite's 4th Q numbers there will be an increase. If not, then Nasrat's statement he was pleased with LCI's market penetration would belie the results. Either one accepts this or not.

As to this...

not sure why there is any support dor this stock. i stay because it stand the thought of missing a run yet my better me says there's no way this POS moves

I think all too many seek the big run that came before and seems so assured now. I can only say that the "big run" in 2014 was based on nothing but manipulation assisted by emotion. There was no news, no pending or substantial catalysts expected. While I hate to say it, the run up was based on nothing but FOMO and FOLO. However, the Elite of today is very different. Elite is profitable and, irrespective of the revenue totals for Q4, will likely be profitable for FY 2021. Their financial ratios are very good and, in some cases better than industry averages. They do not hold onerous debt. I could not care less what traders or investors do. I could not care less for technical analysis when it does not play itself out with a company on the OTC, because of the manipulation. In fact, we once had an excellent technical analyst on the board who gave up because of the games played. So, I do not fall for the tricks or the noise. I focus on the business, keeping in mind what a notable pharma/biotech writer (not me) said about the very situation we investors find with Elite, a profitable company that does not get the requisite love...

When you invest in drug stocks, it's important that you focus on the fundamental developments. You also should be patient to reap the most outsized gains. Sometimes a stock can undergo strong fundamental developments. Nonetheless, the share price can lag behind for years. That's because the market valuation is not necessarily reflective of the stock's true worth. In this situation, you do not want to sell your stocks prematurely. Instead, you should average down and wait patiently. Now, when the stock reaches certain growth spurts, the market will take notice to catalyze substantial share price appreciation. With a fundamental stock, you have more than a 90% chance of seeing the market price moving Northbound to match your stock's intrinsic value.

From a business executive's perspective, Elite is a deleveraged investment because the company is now using revenues generated from commercialized products to power further pipeline development. At some point, I have no idea when, this reality will set in and the p/s will move up. Until then or the company engages in an M&A, as an experienced strategist, I will wait it out. And, most assuredly, I will not worry if the p/s moves 10% because we are talking about small numbers. On that, this should help and, if not, I would suggest there is nothing more I can say.

The law of small numbers refers to the incorrect belief held by experts and laypeople alike that small samples ought to resemble the population from which they are drawn. Although this is true of large samples, it isn’t for small ones. So the “law” of small numbers isn’t really a law at all, but a fallacy. And as such, it is a law you should feel free to break.