Replies to post #679292 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

I don't know that the plaintiffs are corrupt, and aren't asserting that they are.

The plaintiffs are not corrupt. That statement was likely born from a frustration with the tack the current plaintiffs have taken, along with a generous helping of not following the advice in my signature.

I just wish all bases for relief had been advanced.

I concur, but we must play the hand we are dealt here.

As it stands, I expect a pop after the ruling and then another drop, as the reality sinks in that it's still a long journey.

I agree. Even with the NWS struck down (or language in an opinion that leaves no choice for the lower court but to strike it down) there will be significant uncertainty over many important issues like when capital is raised and how much, what Treasury does with the seniors, and whether/when a new capital rule is promulgated (assuming the Supreme Court gives Biden the ability to fire Calabria at will).

Since FnF's capital requirements are roughly keeping pace with their earnings, there will still need to be a huge capital raise whether it's sooner or later. That specter will always loom.

I'm just hoping that POP is a big one.

I'm expecting the commons to hit around $5 and the prefs to go to 60% of par at the post-Collins peak, then slowly settle down to around $3 and 45% respectively while we await the next big piece of news.