Replies to post #37944 on Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[Henkel]

Your reference to AF's article, as though it was anything more than trash, killed the credibility of your post. Good luck.

[meirluc]

The MK trial may miss the OS P value 0.05, but may produce 5 year ~65%
Vs ~60%, a 5% advantage of HR 0.95, good safety profile

Could you explain the mathematics and statistics that led you to arrive at that outcome?

How does your estimated result coincide with how many of the 298 events are SOC, how many are MK treated patients and how many are SOC and MK treatment dropouts (LTFU)?

Do you seriously believe that with a weighted average of 5 years on trial, an estimated minimum of a 55% rate of events for SOC patients and a result documenting that only 37.5% actually evented, this trial will fail?

Failure is only possible if the trial has an enormous number of LTFU (perhaps more than 20%) and I don't believe that we have even one quarter of that number.

[GD]

Primary OS 4.9% advantage Vs my estimate 5%...

I call my estimated right on the marker!!!!!

On May 18:

"Pure guess from my reading of stock actions and Geert's comments
in today's letter and AF's yesterday article:

The MK trial may miss the OS P value 0.05, but may produce 5 year ~65%
Vs ~60%, a 5% advantage of HR 0.95, good safety profile."