Help me figure this out, Don, or others in the know.
Doesn't CYDY owe Samsung about $25M for 1.2M vials?
a. if that's correct, that could be a cost of over $20 per vial (rounded).
b. or do you have other info specifying a $40 per vial cost?
c. I don't know enough about murine production/extraction/cloning, that whole manufacturing process, to have any idea if lenz production is higher or lower cost, let's assume it's triple the cost of your $40 number, $120.
But either way, we now know that Humanigen plans to spend at least as much in inventory ($51.4M) in the second quarter, as they did in the first quarter (and oddly states that we won't spend one penny more unless we have an EUA or CMA by the end of the 2nd quarter).
From the above, how many vials were produced with $51.4M?
a. if vial cost is $20, then 2.57M vials were produced
b. if our mfg price per vial is similar to CYDY's, that would be 1.25M vials in inventory
c. if our mgf cost is 3x that of CYDY's, that is $120 per vial, or an inventory supply of 428.3K vials in the 1st quarter.
So in two quarters, we could be looking at an inventory of anywhere from about 900k vials, to over 5M vials.
It seems to me that Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) is usually the predominant expense shown on a P&L ledger. But let's quadruple that to estimate total cost.
a. $20 x 4 = $80 + $20 = $100
b. $40 x 4 = $160 + $40 = $200
c. $120 x 4 = $480 + $120 = $600
Anyone interested in continuing or modifying this juvenile exercise to drill down to an EPS estimate is welcome to do so, and I would like to see others' thoughts, as always.
But, there is a case here to suggest 12 month sales of 10M vials, and more than enough justification to support a share price projection of $4,200.
I'm glad Durrant provided as much information as he did, but obviously, I wish it had been enough information to be able to make a much more informed analysis.
Is it in the 10-Q?
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