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Replies to post #36978 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
05/15/21 6:37 PM
The Dow Jones Industrials has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.58%. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.47% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 3490346, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 3480832 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 3405086 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in Dow Jones Industrials, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Mar. 14, 2022. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The Dow Jones Industrials has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2021. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Dow Jones Industrials, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 3407531 and overhead resistance forming above at 3446431. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 10th at 3509156, which was up 28 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 26th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 3509156 to 3355522. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 3509156. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 3359915 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
A closing above last year's high of 3063747 will warn of perhaps new highs into next year. A closing below that number would warn that this year could be just a temporary high.
Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in March 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 2985620 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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