We will have a much better idea of proper valuation once we start to see orders and are able to evaluate margins and estimate revenues and profit. With samples potentially going out now, we could start to see orders yet this spring for initial quantities to ship late Q3 and Q4. Incidentally that is well ahead of Luminar's estimated mid-2022 first shipments.
At this point I'd peg fair value of the stock in the $12 range give or take a couple bucks based on where they are at in the product cycle, potential market size and relative strength compared to competitors. It appears that institutions agree as we see heavy buying in the $10.20-$11 range. My price target by end of year is a stable $18-20. Until then I'll get annoyed with the price swings, but am not worried. If they do get a deal done, then bonus, but I'm not counting on that in the near term and you probably shouldn't either.