There is certainly more to it...
I think the dominant factor in the ASP decline is that the market is growing at the bottom, and either shrinking or staying the same at the top. This makes lots of financial sense to me that as world wide penetration of PC's increases, the average cost is going to go down. It is just a matter of simple economics for now.
Intel did have an ASP increase in Q4, I believe mostly due to taking high end stuff from AMD. I suspect in the future the decline will continue. I think Intel will offset this somewhat by integrating more "stuff" into their products and having less of the PC kit go to others.
I do think there was a momentary ASP helper with the market shift to notebooks. However, I think to continue growing notebooks is going to require notebook components to crash down to the levels of desktop components... and that is going to hurt.
While I do think there is currently a bit of over capacity in the CPU industry I don't think it is as bad as many think it is. I am loath to forecast any sort of ASP increase, even if AMD goes away completely.
JMHO,
Alan
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