Replies to post #19099 on General Stock Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bar, While it's extremely hard to pick major tops and bottoms, there have been some exceptions. The 2020 crash was very predictable, and you could see it coming because of the global trajectory of Covid's spread. I got out of most stocks within 1 day of the top. But that's unusual to have a warning like that. By Jan/Feb you could see what was coming.

More often the market will just keep climbing, getting more and more expensive, like a balloon inflating, and that can go on a lot longer than investors expect. You can watch the overvaluation via metrics like the Buffett Index and realize that things are way overvalued, but it might take an external event to get the reversal going.

Right now the Fed/Treasury are so committed to keeping things going that the odds of a new bear market seem very slim. Theoretically they can keep the liquidity/life support flowing for years, until there is a global loss of faith in the US dollar.

There are other factors at work however. They know the dollar reserve system is due to be replaced (SDRs), and that has been the longer term goal. The big question is the timing, and the nature of the transition. Ideally they'll organize an international 'Bretton Woods II' and agree to the new global arrangement, as opposed to waiting for the US dollar system to unravel in a big crisis.

[bigworld]

bar: For physical silver or gold that I want to hold in my actual possession I get mine from Texas Precious Metals in Shiner, TX. They ship for free. Prices are competitive. I've never had a issue with them. Good service and generally a decent inventory, although all bullion dealers are suffering from short supplies. And premiums are high due to the shortage of physical metals. Beyond that I buy gold from "Vaulted". You buy at only 01.8% over spot price and the gold is stored for you at The Royal Canadian Mint. No issues with worrying about theft. delivery back and forth, etc. And the storage fees t 0.4% per year are the lowest in the industry. The company behind Vaulted is McAlvany ICA which is also a Bullion Dealer. With Vaulted you can buy or sell Gold 24 hrs a day and have your money transferred to your checking account. You can buy the same way. You wait for a day when Gold gets monkey hammered and you buy at Spot plus 1.8%. Bullion dealers are selling one ounce gold coins and getting about an $80 premium on one ounce gold coins, which is close to 4.5% premium. So Vaulted can save you a lot of money.

Personally I only hold a decent quantity of Canadian Silver Maples. I have several Monster boxes (500) of them. It is insurance against serious SHTF should that happen. I figure silver coins can be used to buy food if we ever got a Dollar collapse. Gold coins are a good store of value but they'd be difficult to use as "emergency money". I have a few in my possession. But it's an insignificant amount. There is also a company called GoldMoney where you can buy fully reserved gold bullion and you can choose to store them in fully insured vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, Germany, The UK and the USA. Some advisors recommend that people with significant gold holdings divide their holdings in several overseas vaults. I have not yet done this yet but may do so in the future. I do not trust our government. Actually I don't trust most governments. But were I looking for places to stash some wealth I'd go with Singapore and Switzerland. And finally SchiffGold has a program with the Perth Mint in Australia. You can buy and hold bullion directly with the Perth Mint.

I hope this helps