Replies to post #162269 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[daemon57]

Great question.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/25/in-a-major-setback-merck-to-stop-developing-its-two-covid-19-vaccines-and-focus-on-therapies/

Merck 195.14B MC. Their located in the tri-state (Rahway, NJ). They are a top 5 BP. So they may have lost the Vaccine race, but you don't have to graduate an IVY league to figure out that LH is where the true (residual) cashcow is. Initially I thought it would be PFE with their boatload of covid money from their vaccines but Merck would be hungrier, IMHO.

I wouldn't be able to comment on when BUT IF I HAD TO GUESS it would be definitely be after SS PH2 (readout is June 15th NP mentioned?) but before full PH3 trial. Why? Well you guessed it.. SP would be a lot higher and they would have to pay more.

The ABOVE IS ALL MY OPINION and piecing together the story CYDY is unfolding.

GLTU/A.

[RTBhub]

DadBOT, I have always enjoyed your posts and honesty. So, I'm going to give you the inside tip. I posted the below (somewhere) on February 19. You are asking about Step #7. We are currently dancing between steps 6, 7 and 8. The answer to your question is that Step 7 will be executed prior to July 31 at a price between $3 and $7.

Originally Posted 2/19/21
I'm coming to the conclusion that we are going to get a "split decision" on CD12, which is essentially a situation where we do not meet the primary endpoint for all the trial patients.

This is what I think is happening:
1. We missed the p-value overall. Maybe somewhere between .05 and .1
2. Deeper analysis shows that we were below .05 on critical, and above on severe. Similar to what happened in CD10, where we could demonstrate improvement for the sicker patients in the trial.
3. Deeper analysis shows that we seemed to be helping the severe patients, but that the severe in the placebo were recovering "too often" for us to show a significant difference with the relatively small patient counts in the trial. And/or -- severe patients that died were dying after 28 days.
4. So, we are trying to develop that story. We are discussing with the FDA, fishing for an EUA on critical patients only. FDA is saying that the patient count is too low in this segment, so the figures don't have enough "power."
5. They are scrambling like hell to re-negotiate FIFE loan terms. Money is getting thin. Samsung getting impatient.
6. Formulating a strategy to shift investor attention to long-haulers or other indications.
7. Considering offers from large investors (hedge funds) and/or big pharma for a buy-out around current price levels. $3 billion is nothing to sneeze at for a company with no approvals, no cash and no proven ability to submit something "approvable" to the FDA.
8. Some board members finally realizing the NP can't get this over the finish line to approval for any indication. Trial designs and executions are consistently not quite good enough. NP has ignored advice during trial design discussions in the past, and has been proven wrong again.
9. Some regulator has told NP to quit talking about potential stock price.
10. Dr. Mahboob and Lawyer Arian are working together to manage information flow and keep NP quiet.

Of course, it is entirely possible that data is still being scrubbed and hasn't even been locked or analyzed. But, I consider that a low possibility. Maybe 15%.

It is also possible that data is great, and we know it is great and are just timing up announcements and an agreement to sell the inventory to OWS. Maybe that is a 15% chance as well.

But, I'm 70% sure that CYDY knows the results (and they aren't quite good enough) and we are trying to spin them, while fending off internal strife, vendors and lenders.