Fully agree with your assertion. The invisible but always present forces and face-saving actions (or inactions) to avoid egg-on-face for the US can and does carry a lot of weight in the conduct and actions taken by those depending on its support.
I just hope this specific Covid pandemic scenario is just sufficiently different to break through these unspoken agreements. With enough pain on the ground and carnage in hospitals, and pressure on local governments from their constituents, and possibly an inkling of a real journalist or two, of there are any left, willing to bring fact to light, there may be just enough pressure to break the habit.
But one can only hope.
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