Replies to post #7126 on The Black Box

[positiontrader]

Wahz ,

I wrote yesterday.

Posted by: positiontrader
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 6979 Date:10/23/2003 9:02:30 AM
Post #of 7128

Wahz,

I now think the time frame of this previous post will be off by a month.I still think we will make 2100 NAZ before 1800 but we will probably go down before going up again.

Posted by: positiontrader
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 6051 Date:10/9/2003 10:44:33 PM
Post #of 7003

Wahz,

I think the next short term top is NDX 1550,Comp 2100,and INDU 10,400 in 4 weeks from now.

We will see.

Regards

[dieselfuel]

1800. I have the $compx breaking an up-trend line now.
Whether it's just a pierce, we'll have to wait and see how we close today.

Like I said before, I think we fill that gap @ 1836. It sure looks like it wants to fill.

But, where we go from there, I don't know. I would like to think "UP".

[Myself °¿°]

Ok here we are at the 50ma on a QQQ daily, above the bottom of the gap... high for the day of 10/02/03 was 33.43 but the top of the candle is more like 33.25...the 63ema on a QQQ daily is currently 33.30 and falling...what will it be Monday. rsi5 is pretty low.
PS: me too... 2100

[Myself °¿°]

In Aug....Looking at the 63ema>>>It moves with the Q's more than the 50ma...so Monday when/if we are below the 50ma and the bottom of the gap, the 63sma should be too...the panic selling will have to be fast and furious the same day to catch it:) just something to look out for...Also the intraday P/C is not extreme yet http://www.cboe.com/MktData/default.asp
I would also like to see the QQV a bit higher
This could all happen today but I doubt it...I think the talking heads will try to spin this weeks action to the sellers strike populace all weekend:)
Many gaps above need to fill:)
Staying hedged for now

[wahz]

if I would have seen this before, i still would have had a real problem guessing 1800-2100 but i would have said 1800 was slightly more likely

[Myself °¿°]

I hope I did not mislead anyone...Does my brain need a tune up or what...Why do I remember these colors reversed on this chart...


I swear... I remember the Nasdq 100 line being blue, and the COMPQ line red, so I was not looking for the COMPQ to close the gap before the QQQ gap. I was looking at that chart and a gap close price on the QQQ. I thought I was seeing the QQQ lead the COMPQ down as it usually does and was waiting for QQQ to lead the COMPQ back up as the QQQ usually does, when in fact the QQQ for the most part was showing strength all day...I reversed the colors #$%^&^%$#@WQ#$%^&*(&^%$#

Still unaware of my self inflicted confusion, after the market closed, I pulled up a COMPQ chart to see what moving avg it bounced from and noticed it did close that gap. So I pulled up a QQQ chart and saw what I already new to be true, the QQQ gap did not close.

At 1st I thought, "Now what the #*&^% is wrong with that small red/blue chart? The COMPQ isn't supposed to lead the QQQ up unless some sort of heavy rotation is coming out of large cap and into smaller cap. It's just not supposed to happen like this" I started to type this message and post that chart and realized the confusion I hammered my straddle position with.

After stomping around the house I went outside to cool off. I came back in and still could not type. It's now the next am and I'm calm but still P.O. Mistakes like this makes maximizing gains on strangles a little tough.
Ya see, after booking gains on the puts for the second time, I should have added the profit to the call side as I did last time. I thought I was seeing the Friday Monday effect happening, down on Friday down on Monday. I figured I would add the profit to the call side Monday am after the open on a gap down and look for a sell point for the other set of puts.
I could not figure out why the QQQ would bounce before the gap close unless more downside was coming, so I was not really worried about it. Now I sit with puts I should not have and a price gap in my calls when I could have avg. in another 10 contracts to bring my cost basis down

This note is really for myself, so I will never forget that mistake. This could have been my best strangle set % gain and I #$%^&*'d it up.

I am printing this and nailing it to my knotty pine wall with a 16 penny nail. With a highlighter I am drawing this "%" on it!

All I can do now is look for a down turn coming and add to the puts and I reall, reall, really, don't want to do that!

I am blaming a long week for this crap!