mdb1,
Over that past 3 - 6 months (mostly 3), GBTC has had HUGE institutional purchasing. The institutional traders are now in more control over where the price closes daily compared to where the NAV or bitcoin price is. We are seeing a heavier weight put on the GBTC price as to where the institutional traders sentiment during non-market hours is going. Especially on a Friday, the discount or premium will be greater moving forward based on their opinion (I am not an institution....lol).
That said, I think the futures market is also now weighing more and since this was the last friday of the month, it also played into the bigger disconnect.
Once BTC does a solid breakout above the previous ATH (61,700ish) and let say hits between $63,000 and $65,000, I think the discount will flip back to a premium as the bull run is confirmed once again.
If BTC hits $60,000 over this weekend, there is going to be a nice gap up on Monday as the discount will reduce in addition to the gap up to account for price appreciation over the weekend.
Fun to watch.
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