The CEOCA guys are one dimensional and are too focused on whats happening 'right now'. I don't mention plays to people I don't think will play it right. One of my main 2 trading mantras is 'A stock is only as good as the traders that trade it.' Gotta have the right mindset for specific plays like these. I'm kind of surprised that YQR owns as many shares as he does, but doesn't know certain things that he clearly should.
As far as your whale inquiry goes, you are on the right track. Its all in the early filings. You don't need the IR guy to answer that question. He'll skate around it. The answer is subtly laid out in the filings from when the companies got started. IR wants you to think that the CEO is actually in charge. In my opinion, there's just no way in hell that it was Pierces idea to go to Nasdaq nor did he get Wasatch involved. Those types of decisions are no where near his capabilities. He's 90% software engineer, 10% CEO. He's awful at being a CEO. Amazing at building out the product. He doesn't have the time or know how to focus on shareholder value, nor does he care.
But, back to the point, the first thing you have to know is how M & V became public. You have IPO's, you have the very 'now trendy SPACS', and the more old school way of 'taking over an empty shell.' V and M are of the later. Now ask yourself, who does that? Who goes through the trouble of turning a bankrupt/distressed shell company into a brand new public company by using a private start-up? It's all about money, money, money. Who finds the liaison between the shell and private company? Who puts them together? Who's putting together the money to get these types of deals off the ground?
Once completed, who are the new controlling shareholders? As the company trudges ahead, who holds the debt? Who's backing the play? In V's case, they announced they paid off all their debt. Who owned that debt? That, in my eyes, is the most important question to be asking, because he/she who lends the money, controls the company.
Play a little game I like to call, 'Follow the Directors'. Who's the common denominator in V & M? The person is right there in the open. Are they their own boss, or do they answer to somebody? That is the much tougher question, but the answer is there. And that tells you everything you need to know. You will then see the 'spider web' of connections.
One question you could ask right now regarding stock movement, is whats happening with M right now.....in any way similar to what happened with V last Fall? With what V did, the pps marathon it ran, its as if its simply taking breather. And now, all the energy behind the scenes seems to being put into M. This is all just in theory of course, but it makes some sense. Is M heading for The NASDAQ like V did? I dunno, but something is up. Plays like M always retreat big after big runs like this. Why is this not retreating? I mean, it had a dip, but, recovered. This kind of sustainability is rare. You absolutely have to assume that something more is coming. The question is what and how much are you willing to risk that there is.
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