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03/28/21 1:16 PM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6097 and is trading up about 25% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. Factually, this market has been rising for 3 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 6798 while it has not broken last mont's low so far of 5164. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 6150.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high eastablished back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 5 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 6135 and support forming below at 5882. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 8th at 6798, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 2nd. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 10 months since the low established back in April 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5110 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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