Replies to post #350653 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[JPsooner]

Great post! Thanks. That is a lot of billions!

[steelyeye]

Looks like Leo will eventually go after both markets, the anti-viral drug therapy and the IBD markets. Link back for details.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210210005504/en/Global-Anti-Viral-Drug-Therapy-Market-2020-to-2030---Opportunities-and-Strategies-with-COVID-19-Implications-and-Growth---ResearchAndMarkets.com

The beauty of the development of 'B' for AVDT is that the researchers are excited about doing the "broad-spectrum" research based on what they observed in the B-COVID research. Additionally, the pandemic has motivated governments to invest more money in research for vaccines and AVDTs.

By comparison:

Quote:The global inflammatory bowel disease treatment market size is expected to reach USD 22.4 billion by 2026, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc., registering a 4.4% CAGR during the forecast period. Increasing prevalence and incidence of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis is one of the major factors contributing to the market.


https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-inflammatory-bowel-disease-ibd-treatment-market?utm_source=blog.goo.ne.jp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=Vrushali_7Aug_hc_InflammatoryBowelDiseaseTreatmentMarket_pr&utm_content=Content

Sometimes following Leo's thinking is as simple as following the money. In 2030, the projected anti-viral drug therapy (AVDT) market size will be nearly 6-times the market size of IBD in 2026, suggesting that between 2021 -2030, the AVDT market will be the much, much, more lucrative area of the two.

Normally, I would say given these facts and projections, IBD must take a backseat to AVDT. BUT, if you will click on the reference post# above, you can read why I believe B-COVID will be able to provide all the financing needed for development of AVDT, IBD and the rest of IPIX's pipeline...simultaneously.

[thefamilyman]

I think your observations are spot on!

[Lemoncat]

Some big numbers on both. Hopefully we get a piece of both in the future.

Go IPIX!

[Longpicker]

THAT’S AWESOME!!! GO IPIX!!!

[CallMeCrazy]

B-COVID Is A Big Deal

Today's national news that reports worldwide COVID-19 deaths just passed 3M with 12,000 deaths occurring everyday. Additionally, while only a small percentage of the world is vaccinated against COVID-19, variants, manufacturing/supply chain, import/export and intellectual property issues, all threaten to slow the worldwide vaccination rate even further.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00727-3

An effective COVID-therapeutic that is among the first to prove that it keeps patients from dying from COVID will be very valuable to the non-vaccinated populations of the world and will generate billions in sales. Governments and global organizations are waiting to buy for one big obvious reason. The ultimate goal is to stop people from dying from COVID with or without vaccine, but B-COVID might also have a "prophylactic" property as well. This property, if possessed, would greatly increase B-COVID's usage and sales.

During the global COVID-19 pandemic, we selectively formed new external industry partnerships, including this opportunity to research a drug candidate like Brilacidin,” said Aarthi Narayanan, PhD, Associate Professor of Systems Biology in Mason’s College of Science. “In testing at GMU’s BSL-3 lab, we showed that Brilacidin potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 in vitro against the live virus. Beyond exhibiting treatment potential for those already infected by COVID-19, Brilacidin’s ability to disrupt viral integrity and block viral entry indicates it has the added potential to prevent infection, upon appropriate formulation, as a prophylactic. I look forward to working with Innovation to investigate further Brilacidin’s antiviral properties,” Narayanan added.

http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2020/10/30/innovation-pharmaceuticals-and-george-mason-university-announce-public-release-of-laboratory-testing-results-demonstrating-brilacidins-covid-19-treatment-potential

The evidence suggest B-COVID is on the brink of becoming a major breakthrough as an effective-therapeutic drug against COVID-19. Evidence that range from a "molecular screening of 11,552 compounds" to a "426 SI". Additionally, George Mason University's (GMU) College of Science is behaving as if they are trying to enhance their reputation through the promising research they developed on "B" for COVID, which made them believe that "B" is likely the answer to COVID as well as other viral indications.

Based on the evidence, I fully expect B-COVID's P-2 to produce results good enough to qualify for a EUA. If this occurs then I think it will be a wake-up call for BP players in the Antiviral Drug Market. Players like Gilead Sciences, F. Hoffmann-La Roche AG, GlaxoSmithKline plc, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson and Bristol-Myers Squibb. "These industry leaders are adopting various inorganic growth strategies to gain market share and sustainable competitive advantage." (Note: Inorganic growth is the rate of growth of business, sales expansion etc. by increasing output and business reach by acquiring new businesses by way of mergers, acquisitions and take-overs.)
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/antiviral-drugs-market?gclid=Cj0KCQjwpdqDBhCSARIsAEUJ0hO0Ug6sjNrM28NQKlDLeg3DsGoQ1BfEdNCVjjimnPtY9BjxMw2-KNgaAmfoEALw_wcB

If IPIX has any suitors my guess is that it is one of the above. These potential suitors will not overlook the billion$ associated with an effective COVID therapeutic and the fact that those billion$ in sales will not take years to ramp up. No pharmaceutical sales force needed. Governments and global organizations will buy in bulk and distribute.

Additionally, GMU will be testing B's efficacy against their frozen inventory of "virological vermin", the first of which I hope is the enveloped virus that causes HIV because of the $44B 2020 market value for antiviral drugs, HIV drugs account for $30B.

Furthermore, between 2021 and 2027 the Antiviral Drug Market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.6%, while the coronavirus infection segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.4%.
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/antiviral-drugs-market?gclid=Cj0KCQjwpdqDBhCSARIsAEUJ0hO0Ug6sjNrM28NQKlDLeg3DsGoQ1BfEdNCVjjimnPtY9BjxMw2-KNgaAmfoEALw_wcB

Unlike the development of B as a broad-spectrum viral and other B indications that will take years, B-COVID represents the HERE AND THE NOW, whose potential short term sales could produce revenues large enough to give IPIX the financial independence it needs to develop its pipeline in a time and manner of its' choosing.

All of the reasons I've stated above that will probably attract BP are also reasons I believe Leo will not be making any deals regarding B-COVID. Some here seem to think that all BP has to do is come-a-callin' and Leo will cave. IMO, Leo is still looking to maximize the value of our pipeline and nothing does that better than having one-two or more billion-dollar indications producing reliable and predictable revenues. I think current market conditions have given Leo the visibility he needed to see the path he needs to take to realize his strategy of maximizing the value of our pipeline.

Message in reply to:

COVID-19 Front-Burner, Broad-Spectrum Anti-viral Back-Burner, Sheer, Genius Leo

Company advancing Brilacidin as a next-generation broad-spectrum antiviral for the treatment of common colds and deadly coronavirus infections
.... Research shows Brilacidin exerted potent in vitro inhibition of multiple strains of H-CoVs. On completion of testing, the H-CoV findings are expected to be submitted for peer-review publication. The Company is evaluating these data alongside previously obtained SARS-CoV-2 data, strategizing with its scientific advisors and consultants, to develop Brilacidin as a “pan-coronavirus” therapeutic.

http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2020/11/30/innovation-pharmaceuticals-covid-19-clinical-trial-to-support-additional-development-of-brilacidin-as-a-pan-coronavirus-therapeutic

I believe this quote signaled Leo's change FROM IBD, as the lead area of focus for Brilacidin, TO Anti-Viral Drug Therapy. Here's why:
Quote:
The global anti-viral drug therapy market reached a value of nearly $46,456.4 million [=$46.4B] in 2019, having increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% since 2015. The market is expected to grow from $46,456.4 million [=$46.4B] in 2019 to $ 61,571.9 million [=$61.5B] in 2020 at a rate of 32.5%. The growth is mainly due to the increase in number of COVID-19 cases. The market is then expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2021 and reach $74,385.9 million [=$74.3B] in 2023. The market is expected to reach $ 87,230.5 million [=$87.2B] in 2025, and $ 130,125.3 million [=$130.1B] in 2030. [equivalency added]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210210005504/en/Global-Anti-Viral-Drug-Therapy-Market-2020-to-2030---Opportunities-and-Strategies-with-COVID-19-Implications-and-Growth---ResearchAndMarkets.com

The beauty of the development of 'B' for AVDT is that the researchers are excited about doing the "broad-spectrum" research based on what they observed in the B-COVID research. Additionally, the pandemic has motivated governments to invest more money in research for vaccines and AVDTs.

By comparison:
The global inflammatory bowel disease treatment market size is expected to reach USD 22.4 billion by 2026, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc., registering a 4.4% CAGR during the forecast period. Increasing prevalence and incidence of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis is one of the major factors contributing to the market.

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-inflammatory-bowel-disease-ibd-treatment-market?utm_source=blog.goo.ne.jp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=Vrushali_7Aug_hc_InflammatoryBowelDiseaseTreatmentMarket_pr&utm_content=Content

Sometimes following Leo's thinking is as simple as following the money. In 2030, the projected anti-viral drug therapy (AVDT) market size will be nearly 6-times the market size of IBD in 2026, suggesting that between 2021 -2030, the AVDT market will be the much, much, more lucrative area of the two.

Normally, I would say given these facts and projections, IBD must take a backseat to AVDT. BUT, if you will click on the reference post# above, you can read why I believe B-COVID will be able to provide all the financing needed for development of AVDT, IBD and the rest of IPIX's pipeline...simultaneously.