Replies to post #42176 on Economic Collapse

[basserdan]

8:30a International Trade In Goods (Advance)
Balance $-83.7B actual vs $-83.2B (rev) prior
Imports - M/M 1.1% actual vs 1.4% (rev) prior
Exports - M/M 1.4% actual vs 4.6% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to hold steady at $83.0 billion in January versus $83.2 billion in December (revised from $82.5 billion).
Definition
The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.


8:30a Retail Inventories (Advance)
Month over Month -0.6% actual vs 1.9% (rev) prior
Definition
Retail inventories measure the monthly dollar value of inventories held by retailers. The advance report is released late in the month for the following month and is part of the Monthly Advance Economic Indicators report (which also includes data on wholesale inventories and international trade in goods). Final monthly data for retail inventories are released about two weeks later with the Business Sales and Inventories report.


8:30a Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
Month over Month 1.3% actual vs 0.5% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Wholesale inventories in January are expected to increase 0.3 percent to match a 0.3 percent build in December (revised from 0.1 percent).
Definition
Wholesale inventories measure the monthly dollar value of inventories held by merchant wholesalers and are tracked to gauge inventory change in quarterly GDP. The advance report is released late in the month for the following month and is part of the Monthly Advance Economic Indicators report (which also includes data on retail inventories and international trade in goods). Final monthly data for wholesale inventories are released about two weeks later with the Wholesale Trade report which also includes initial monthly data on wholesale sales.


8:30a Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income - M/M 10.0% actual vs 0.6% prior month
Personal Consumption Expenditures - M/M 2.4% actual vs -0.4% (rev) prior month
PCE Price Index - M/M 0.3% actual vs 0.4% prior month
PCE Price Index - Y/Y 1.5% actual vs 1.3% prior year
Core PCE Price Index - M/M 0.3% actual vs 0.3% prior month
Core PCE Price Index - Y/Y 1.5% actual vs 1.4% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Personal income is expected to surge 9.4 percent in January on federal stimulus payments. Personal consumption expenditures, which fell 0.2 percent in December after falling 0.7 percent in November, are expected to increase 2.2 percent in January. Inflation readings, though still modest, were at the high end of expectations in December with January's consensus for the core PCE seen up 0.1 percent on the month and down 1 tenth on the year at 1.4 percent.
Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.
Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.
Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

[basserdan]

9:45a Chicago PMI
Index 59.5 actual vs 63.8 prior
Consensus Outlook
After five straight readings above 60 or very near 60, forecasters see February's Chicago PMI coming in at 61.0. Note that employment, at 43.4 in January, has been substantially lagging in this report.
Definition
The Institute For Supply Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Since October 2011, the survey has been conducted by Market News International. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms both are surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 indicate an expanding business sector.


10:00a Consumer Sentiment
Index 76.8 actual vs 76.2 prior
Consensus Outlook
Consumer sentiment fell unexpected to a very subdued 76.2 in the preliminary February report with 76.4 the expectation for the month's final reading.
Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 600 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.