QAnon is not a static conspiracy theory. Since it first emerged in 2017, it has continuously evolved, focusing on different key topics and adopting elements of other conspiracy theories. As Bellingcat has recently written, this elasticity has been the key to its success.
With the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, QAnon’s faithful are adrift and confused. Their distress has caused some observers to ask whether their cult may collapse entirely. That might be premature. Failed prophecies do not always collapse elaborate conspiracies — if that were true, how could QAnon have endured for four years?
If we cannot predict its end, we can at least trace QAnon from its beginning — looking at all the falsehoods and conspiracies it peddled, from the initial Mueller investigations to the era of COVID-19 and the last days of the Donald Trump presidency.
Bellingcat researchers have analysed a dataset containing 4,952 so-called “Q drops”, the cryptic messages that are at the heart of the conspiracy theory. These were posted by an anonymous person known simply as “Q” — whom followers believe to be a source of insider knowledge about US politics. Whenever a Q drop appears, believers around the world eagerly try to interpret its hidden meaning, connecting them to real world events.
The Q drop dataset was found on the image board 8kun, which was used by Q followers as a location to comment on Q drops. It contains posts dating back to October 2017, a time when QAnon theories were a fringe online hobby, and continues until October 2020 — by which time they were taken all too seriously.
The word clouds in the timeline show the most common words found in the Q drops over one- or three-month intervals, while the accompanying text discusses important developments during these periods, both in US politics and significant Q drops.
This chronology brings quantitative and qualitative analysis to the story of QAnon’s growth, enriching our understanding of how the conspiracy adapts to contradictions and evolves its narratives.
The Mice once called a meeting to decide on a plan to free themselves of their enemy, the Cat. At least they wished to find some way of knowing when she was coming, so they might have time to run away. Indeed, something had to be done, for they lived in such constant fear of her claws that they hardly dared stir from their dens by night or day.
Many plans were discussed, but none of them was thought good enough. At last a very young Mouse got up and said:
"I have a plan that seems very simple, but I know it will be successful.
All we have to do is to hang a bell about the Cat's neck. When we hear the bell ringing we will know immediately that our enemy is coming."
All the Mice were much surprised that they had not thought of such a plan before. But in the midst of the rejoicing over their good fortune, an old Mouse arose and said:
"I will say that the plan of the young Mouse is very good. But let me ask one question: Who will bell the Cat?"
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