Ombow, >> playing the run-up to a binary event <<
Yes there's nothing wrong with playing around with a modest position. But 'modest' is the key - no mega bets. The most important thing is to always be able to live to fight another day. If you bet huge on a binary event you can lose 70, 80, 90% instantly, poof it's gone and you're an instant dumpster dude. Failed/disappointing trials happen a lot.
With binary events (key clinical data readouts, waiting for an FDA approval decision, etc), the relatively safe time to be long is during the pre-event runup period - the weeks/months prior to the actual event. That's when the price will usually run up gradually as anticipation grows. You take the easy money during that runup period, and then exit/lighten up prior to the actual event. The odds of making money are high during the runup period, and the risk of losing a lot is high during the actual event, so you take the good odds and avoid the bad. This is a winning strategy with bio stocks, and can be repeated over and over. If you want to actually stay long thru the event, use a small position scaled way back.
>> take a chance on CYDY <<
About a year ago I was considering a long position in CYDY that would be based on the severe trial results. I figured the mild/mod trial didn't have great odds because the cytokine storm doesn't occur until patients reach the severe stage. However, after seeing what that PhD poster said (he had experience in running clinical trials), that cooled my jets. Also I was purposely avoiding Covid stocks, just too many players, and was trying to stay away biotech in general. Then after seeing more interviews with the shifty CEO, and seeing how he handled the mild/mod data readout, there was no reason to mess around with such a slimy stock.
Also, the market cap is already big. It's not like it's a $200 mil micro cap. And the share count is already blown out (600 mil shares). They should have done a reverse split a few years ago to restore the share structure. There's also competition for cytokine storm from HGEN. Plus Covid will be over by summer. The Covid sweepstakes was mainly a 2020 phenomenon. Reducing cytokine storm could have other uses, but that will take years of clinical trials in the other indications.
Finally, CYDY can no longer be considered to be in the relatively safe pre-event runup period. It's still 'pre-event', but it isn't 'safe' because of the long delay, which suggests the results were likely ambiguous. Who knows, but I would pass on this event. Another factor is that I can't stand that shifty little prick CEO. From the first time I listened to the guy, the spidey sense was saying that this guy is a lying weasel.
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