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Lemoncat

02/20/21 12:13 PM

#347701 RE: Billy10us #347696

It's a question of when and how many more trials will we have done.

Assume 500M shares once all the preferred and convertible stuff is settled. That means $1B = $2/share.

So your $45-65/share for Brilacidin for COVID is valued at $22B-$33B. That seems pretty steep. Remdesivir collected about $2.7B in revenue in 2020 but pharma isn't going to stick a 10x multiple on that revenue stream. If it shows similar effect on Influenza and other viruses maybe.

I would expect royalty-based partnerships are what Leo will sign. It's hard to get BP to pay up and take risk upfront...especially on our first meaningful deal (discount AS for me). That was always Leo's intent. Granted he was five years younger and presiding over a much more solid company back in 2015. Maybe if we revalue up to $2-3B on COVID results he'd take a $5B buyout.

Who knows, hopefully it will be in the double-digits though.

This question is all good and fun...but the only one that matters is whether Brilacidin works against COVID in the clinic.

Go IPIX!
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petemantx

02/20/21 1:21 PM

#347710 RE: Billy10us #347696

Just like Brilacidin is not a one trick pony (meaning CV is very important but should it not perform well it is not the end of B as a great drug), IPIX is not a one trick pony (it also has K), and Leo's options going forward on how he wants to take IPIX to maximize value to stockholders is not a one trick pony, he has many options.

Like you, I rely on those posters that leave me in the dust as to knowledge about medicine, business, et al to provide me with ideas and let me discern which seem to make the most sense, so that is what my answer is going to do for you as I do not have permission to pass along their thoughts and will let them do so should they desire to do so.

Total buyout - Ridiculous at this time IMO as both Kevetrin and Brilacidin haven't proven anything yet and so no partner is going to pony up the billions it would take to buy the company outright.

Platform buyout of Brilacidin - This is where it gets interesting. Because B works on the entire body (we know already from RBL it works on the head (encephalitic swelling), kidneys, pulmonary (lungs), dermatology, GI tract, eye/ear drops (still a ? at this time), viruses, bacteria, inflammatory issues, etc, etc how can the platform be parceled out by indication? Once B gets in the bloodstream it is going to work on the entire body and the lawsuits regarding overlapping infringements by various partners would be quite annoying to all. That is why I see Brilacidin being partnered as a total package -BUT, would that package also include CV19 or would CV19 and ALL coronaviruses remain with IPIX? This is but one of the many options Leo has and it takes time to hammer them out.

Such a platform could be sold, a new company established between BP/IPIX, or some other structured deal so that both IPIX and BP are protected from either overpaying or selling far too cheaply.

I believe it will take at least 2 years or more to get even a starting handle on selling the entire company and believe it is more likely IPIX will stay and simply become an entity to handle the royalties it receives from its deals for K and B.

I think $45-65 is ridiculously low if both K and B perform as expected as IMO each will be $10B+/yr drugs. I would prefer a partnered structure where IPIX receives far and away more royalties than currently demanded by startups (royalty rate could be structured to rise as revenues rise) and IMO this way a holder of say 1MM shares would receive a 7 figure dividend check yearly without having to sell any stock. Pretty nice IMO.

To sum it up, too early for a buyout but one never knows about a Brilacidin partnership. Maybe that would be held off for both a successful result in the CV19 trial and the upcoming UC trial showing that B will likely take care of all problems in the GI tract. Once that is done, BP should have a very good grasp on the extent of how B should play out in the other areas it seems to also have a great shot at being the gold-standard of treatment. So in the end I am not worried about the share price between now and the end of the year, but I do believe we will be in the multi dollars shortly.

Other factors most who keep up with this board understand could also provide a dramatic, no a highly dramatic, rise in the share price later this year. One just never knows and such events shouldn't be expected, but one never knows if they actually will occur.

Hope this helps.