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03/06/21 1:06 PM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6609 and is trading up about 36% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. Immediately, this market has been rising for 3 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 6642 while it has not broken last mont's low so far of 5164. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 6381.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high reestablished back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 5 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 6381.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 1st at 6642, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 6642 to 5924. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 1st reaching 6642 has exceeded the previous high of 5393 made back during the week of January 11th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 17 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDUATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 10 months since the low established back in April 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5110 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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