Replies to post #78371 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[mas]

Back to possible strategies, AMD does not have many options other than price everything they can manufacture to sell.

Short term yes. Long term they need to throw cache and cores at the current K8/L design to be able to continue to sell all they make. K8L will probably take them upto ipc parity +/- 10% but Intel's 45nm if good will open up a clock advantage again and Nehalem will probably be better than K8L 20-40% per clock. In a year's time when P4 rides into the sunset there will be no where to hide any obsolete models and it will start getting really brutal if you think this quarter was bad. They will need more cores and cache then Intel just to survive in the same atmosphere. Die sizes will go to hell but there will be no alternative until the real K10 steps forward.

I could see this all in 2005 which is why the 90nm tri-core I was recommending for about now would have provided some asp and product insurance. Unfortunately they took no insurance steps and by also cancelling the original speed racer K9 and the original wide issue K10 have no real counter to Core 2 right now. Intel with their excess capacity and cheap process will be able to go as cheap as any AMD product soon with Core 2 derivatives and only product differentiation will be able to save AMD long-term. I also think R600 will help a lot as a successful high margin product over time. It's a sorry state brought on by AMD frankly ignoring Intel's roadmap and marching to their own roadmap beat without deviation or care for the competition. It was a gamble based almost I would say on Intel's non-execution continuing but it hasn't paid off. AMD are not finished but they are now in a scrap for their very existence yet again.