Replies to post #45034 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[JDerb]

Correction:

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 85% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 56% (Unchanged from previous week)

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks Jon,



It's not just GameStop that's had an unusual time of late. Speculation has
been bearish for months and IPO/New Issues has been, too. Add to that quite
unreasonable valuations across the entire market and we have a cauldron of
Witches Brew that's going to cause many investors warts.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Jon, Re: Market Risk by another measure................

Thank you for your private question. I feel it is important to give a public answer here on the AIM Bulletin Board.

The highest the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator (MRI) has ever gone, since starting it in 1982, is 41 for diversified investments. The date of that high water mark is this week. The second highest reading was 40 and occurred last week.


(the MRI is the outgrowth of my ancient "Idiot Wave" for those here who remember that)

The MRI is the summation of four risk components, three of which have been in their own bearish territories for quite some time. The forth is currently neutral. Here's how the Three Bears look:



As you can see, this isn't just a one week signal, but the accumulation of weeks of very risky market readings.

Everyone, hold your fire and keep your powder dry!
Wait until you can see their bloodshot eyes.
Pay homage if this Bull market reaches its demise.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom