$10.5 million for 2020 is a ridiculously high estimate and should be taken as such.
First half 2020 sales of $3,455,005 were up 29.2 percent from second half 2019 sales of $2,673,686,
If sales of $10.5 million is an estimate for 2020, that would mean that $7,044,995 were revenues in the second half and second half sales were up sequentially by 103%.
Can this company grow from the first half 29% (first half 2020 versus second half 2019 sequentially) followed up by 103% from the first half of 202 to the second half 2020 sequentially?
How do I get from 29% sequential to 103% sequential? Besides guessing? With nothing to go on? The company indicated faster growth in the second half, but 103%?
I certainly picked that yearly round number so I can divide it neatly into fully diluted shares. ($10.5 million year over 7 million fully diluted shares or $1.5 per share in sales).
To make absurd $7 million in second half 2020 estimate, let's see what we can really come up with.
Second half 2019 sales were down 6.7 percent versus first half 2019.
That is the key. We were trending down.
There is no reason not assume that January, February and March 2020 were weak. The second half 2019 trend continued in the first three months of 2020. Were they down 6.7%? I'll say we were down at least 10% January February and March.
To come up with 30% sequential growth (29.2 percent actual) we would need 50% sequential growth in April May June. I really believe that the numbers were very large in April May and June. But this assumption, again, was based on 10% down the first three months, and how can I reach 30% growth in the half, without making the second three months up 50%?
For the very same reason I assumed January February and March 2020 were down 10% which is more than the six month prior of down 6.7 percent sequentially, with nothing happening in a straight line, what about that 50% growth in April, May and June 2020? There is a trend.
It did not go 50, 50, 50.
Did it go 40, 50, 60? April, May, June 2020? Sequential growth months?
Are the next months 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120? I don't think it did 100, 110, 120 percent in those last three months, because those were the strongest and rapidly growing months in the first half. That would mean that October, November and December really exploded.
But, we did have a Loudoun order.
Give me a handful of those, and something special is going on.
Is that trend not pointing to 100% sequential growth?
Does anyone follow the simple logic that January and February and March were trending down, and then we took off in April, May and June to reach 29 % sequential growth? Does anyone follow the logic that April, May and June were growing faster and faster, and that July grew faster than June, AUgust grew faster than July, September grew faster than August, Ocotober grew faster than September, November grew faster than October, and December grew faster than November.
100% sequential growth. $7 million in second half sales versus $3.5 million in first half sales. $10.5 million total. Why not.
I'm ready to see it much lower. I'll just put a higher multiple of sales on.
$5.25 target by the time they report.
GLTAllDeet
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