Replies to post #3114 on ImClone Systems Inc (formerly IMCL)

[Telephonics]

My wife's oncologist is the head of the cancer treatment and infusion center of our hospital. Although my wife is not on any regimen using erbitux I asked him abut its use vs Avastin. He chuckled and said We are using more erbitux every day and until there is an FDA approval resulting from full blown clinical trials we shall not prescribe avastin.
He treasts my wife for CML and with use of Gleevex he has kept her in remission for 7 years now.

[upwestside]

so, if avas is taken on "blind faith" and has no 1st line data, and if erb is the only biologic to clinically prove a benefit, then why is this stock stuck in the mud? furthermore, would it presumptuous to assume that erb *will* replace avas as the standard in 1st line? after all youve said, i cant see why this wouldnt happen.

[Imclonian]

>>>Simply, probably 25% of the eligible 1st line mCRC patients don't take Avastin because they have hypertension,cardio or bleeding disorders and for them avastin's side effects are very dangerous.<<<

Jbog, I remember some time last year that about 30% of 1st line patients don't take Avastin. That was the reason why I forsee that if Erbitux produces better results than Avastin then they should have roughly MINIMUM $300M in sales after the 1st full year of 1st line approval. I posted a terribly rough valuation range on the ymb if 1st line Erby pulls through.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=9365&tid=3....

I am assuming that if the data is equal or better than Avastin then Erby should be able to scoop the 30% of non Avastin 1st line patients ($300M) plus a "x%" of current Avastin market share.

If that's the case, then there is no way that I'd want the company to be sold in the $50's. That's like adding no premium.

Also, a lot of these analysts in the US fail to also add a valuation to the 9.5% of sales that Imclone receives from Merck kgaa and that should be vocally noted by the board.

[CruelShoes]

Jbog,

"Avastin has never had it's own full trial for 1st line colorectal, onc's use it on 'blind faith'. In other words it was proven to work with IFL so it 'probably' will work with folfox or folfiri."

I find this incredible. If this is true, then how did Avastin get 1st-line on its label, and how has it become the gold standard?