back of the napkin, first glance for that one...
first, take into consideration the market cap is already $1.9B
new cases of lupus per year seem to be up to 16,000
roll those forward there may be up to 300,000 people at risk of associated kidney disease
if I have read right so far, then the product ( which appears very positive ) probably has to play in that space of 300,000 total.
That would yield a dosage cost of $6,333 per patient to make the market cap in one year. Perhaps about $1,000 with a 6 or 7x multiple.
So the bottom line is that it is not easy to see if the "success" is already baked in to the share price. (at first glance)
I would guess it will pop but not that it will pop and hold.