It is hard to estimate where the SP might be in your scenarios. Especially because it will depend to a great degree on how much money PCTL spends in the process of generating the revenues .... in other words it will depend a lot on what level of Net Profits they can generate.
I hope that we will hit at least $10 Million, and spend “only” $5 Million, and thus generate Net Profits of at least $5 Million.
In that scenario I would hope to see the SP increase to $0.20.
If PCTL expenses are $8 Million, and they generate Net Profits of $2 Million, then the SP might only increase to $0.09.
If they spend $10 Million in order to generate $10 Million in Revenues, then the SP may struggle to increase too much, unless it is clear that the expenses were made to also dramatically increase future revenues. Or unless there is some other part of “the story” that would justify expectation of dramatic Net Profit improvement.
Your scenario that PCTL might reach $10 Million in Revenue by Q3, and thus perhaps on track for Annual Revenues of perhaps $13.5 Million, seems like a reasonable “Positive Upside” surprise scenario.
But to even throw out a scenario of reaching $10 Million by Q2 (annualized revenues of $20 Million) ... we have no reason currently to justify that this would be a reasonable expectation, so I think this is not worthwhile even contemplating (yet). Perhaps after we get word of further positive O&G field tests with Catholye and accompanying orders being placed.
It would similarly be a bit silly to try to figure out what might happen to the Share Price if PCTL spends $18 Million to generate $10 Million in revenues, and wind up with a Net Loss of $8 Million. There is no reason to think that this may happen.
Bottom line ... a lot of the SP increase will depend on the Net Profits. I think it would be great if PCTL can generate $3 to $7 Million in Net Profit in 2021 ... and if they do that then the SP increase should make (most) longs quite happy.
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