What if all of the additional deaths are in the Placebo arm? Please explain to us how an even GREATER difference in the number of deaths in the treatment arm and the placebo arm would lead you to say that there’s no significant difference between the trial drug and the placebo?
We know the placebo arm is going to have 20%-30% because it is severe and critical combined. If the study were entirely critical, the placebo could have a mortality rate higher than 30%. With Otto Yang's eINDS, two-thirds were severe and one-third were critical. If this study has two-thirds severe, statistical significance will be impossible. Even if the study is two-thirds critical, it is a small window for statistical significance.