If we vote no, there is a very real chance that our share price will fall right back to $0.40-0.50. That said, with the Dems in control of the WH, House, and Senate, the MORE Act and SAFE Banking Act are all but done.
Institutional money is going to flow into all the MSO's. If you consider how many idiots (like me) jumped into the cannabis investment world without much of a clue within the past several years, think about all the FOMO that is going to occur with early investors that lost and opted out of weed, along with the folks that never jumped in (a much greater amount of potential investors), combined with all that institutional cash injection across the segment.
Should this deal not close, we do risk a temporary setback in terms of SP, and it will cost us $13 million to negate the deal. But we have the infrastructure to go it alone for awhile, assuming the SJG strains continue on positive track and we get the kitchen approved by the state. There will be no shortage of suitors for Liberty in the short and long term. Liberty will be acquired for between $2-3 by July, at the latest, if this deal is voted down...the physical assets (with tons of acreage to develop plus 42 open dispensaries in several months), is worth more than $1.50 now...and that is without near term future catalysts that are nearly certain.
This was a smart move by AYR. Sandelman is a brilliant guy, and played this (and the other recent acquisitions in OH, NJ) perfectly, in terms of timing. AYR had the powder to make the offer, lowball as it is, while other MSO's were playing the "wait and see" game with the elections. Most of these US companies know that cheaper financing is coming, but couldn't afford to further dilute shares because all the weed investors are looking more at fundamentals now, especially considering the overexuberant and premature spending spree they all went on 2-4 years ago.
I am more than willing to take that risk by voting no. This was a long term play for me all along, and I truly believe that another quarter or two of patience will pay off handsomely. In fact, if this deal does not go through, I will be aggressively gobbling up more shares. The offer alone, albeit lowball, brought much needed attention to our company. I would actually be surprised if we fell back below $0.70, as new money will be rolling into the segment and into Liberty. If $0.90-$1.40 was on the table before the Dems took full control, what is on the table in 3 months?
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