Funny ... what a waste of analysis ... Truly a waste ... If anything is in the driver’s seat it’s SCOTUS. The spectrum of possibilities is vast and I honestly don’t see some big bang event that is going to reward JPS. They are so caught up in a restructuring that they forget about timing, along with SCOTUS leverage with a conservative court writing down the liquidation pref which by default all but kills the warrants. For the non-believers, go to pages 98 and 99 of the oral arguments and read Thompon’s request on remedy.
On the timing front a cap raise under Biden with a new FHFA director after a SCOTUS ruling? The time for JPS to sell was when Trump lost, but they got soo caught up in the weeds with their desire to be right on a big bang plan with restructuring that they forgot about timing. Timing is everything ... and a condensed window is no friend of the big bang theory ...
SCOTUS vs Lamberth contract claims is no contest. Either JPS is comforting themselves in their echo chamber, or it’s just a marketing campaign to pump JPS. If SCOTUS allows for direct claims, there will be no cap raise for an eternity due to a flood of new legal claims and appeals delaying the cap raise. Possibly class action resurrected from the dead due to lower court dismissals.
Even without direct claims, derivative claims help the company and commons appreciate. Anything from $124 Billion with damages to just the liquidatIon pref to 0 (by default the warrants xled also) has commons appreciate at high single digit multiples or higher.
Once that is done then you can discuss CRPs publicly = more time. How I will relish the public comments on the capital restoration plans. That will be must see TV/reading. I hope for a midas comment letter - more amateur hour ...
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