Truth is it’s very uncertain, all I can say for sure is that Aviptadil works for Covid Pneumonia and once available generally it will make us some good money. Vaccinations appear effective and it does seem like those who get reinfected are anomalies who likely have weakened immune systems. Hence, that is the risk. I do think Aviptadil will eventually get approved for ARDS due to any cause. However we do not have the data for that to be betting the house on it.
You also need to consider dilution when determining the point at which BRPAW returns will outpace BRPAR. BRPA will suffer dilution as rights are automatically converted at merger.
Less risk in the warrants if the merger falls through and much higher reward if stock does well long term.
However, vast majority of SPAC lose money after merger. If you bought at today’s price, if merger went through tomorrow your rights would be converted to BRPA at 29.63 (not accounting for dilution) when you effectively paid 13.40. Effective cost from warrants are 17.19 but you can’t exercise right away anyways. You’d need BRPA to go up another ~4 to $33 to get the same return (per share) but you could buy ~twice as many warrants due to leverage. You can also be forced to exercise the warrants sooner than you’d like if it is trading consistently high.
Basically I agree with everything you said but there is lots of minutiae to consider when comparing the rights vs warrants.
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