I've done enough research, and understand the sector well enough to forecast probabilities for 2007 with a certain degree of confidence.
also... UCOI represents only a small portion of my investment money... and IMO, the downside risk from this level is low... if I don't get a decent return here, it's not going to hurt... although, I calculate it'll be highly unlikely not to make a decent percentage return from these levels sometime later this year.