Replies to post #10822 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Bulldog010]

CJ,

Ok....

That's some good Info. I remember that interview..but, like many of other items...forgot about it over time.

So, he projects 10k first year, 20k second year and 40k third year...let's use those.

and 1500 to 2000 per patient??

Let's use 1500...half of which goes to CT =750 and half of that..to PPHM. Simple math tells us that 375.

ok.

So, it's projected..(again, back in 2003..so FWIW..but, it's the only projection we have to go on)

1st year pphm revs 3.75 mm
2nd year 7.5mm
3rd year 15mm.

For this company..that's pretty dang good.

Ok, let's take the annual supg payment of 200k and fig. in about 3mm per year from Avid(Halozyme contract ramp up)

With just those 3 items...

first year 3.75 from China,200k supg and 3mm avid.

That's appx. 6.95mm

year two 10.7mm

year three 18.2mm.

That is JUST those three year projections from JUST those three sources..it could inc or dec...just using what numbers we have....

That also has to be applied to the burnrate...it's not clear profit.

but, it's better than nothing.

NOW, let's get Cotara into someone's hands who will use it....WORLDWIDE


P.S. I don't have the time to scout the qtrly's to get all the milestone payments etc...but, I know there aren't that many..so, we should be close.