Replies to post #2522 on RedHill Biopharma Ltd (RDHL)

[DorseyE]

What was to come was two things - first, an excellent pair of deals with AstraZeneca (AZN) and privately held Cosmo, whereby RedHill acquired Movantik and Aemcolo respectively. Movantik is a revenue-generating naloxegol tablet FDA-approved for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation (OIC) in adults with chronic non-cancer pain. Before it was acquired, it was generating around $96 million in annual revenue for AstraZeneca. This is, very roughly, the same amount RedHill will be paying to AstraZeneca as fees and royalties over the next few years. Meanwhile, despite the pandemic, which has badly affected everybody, including this company, it had revenues of $21 million in the November quarter - most of it, I assume, coming from Movantik.

[Spideyboy]

A rather subdued SA article wouldn't you think?

Talicia is just starting sales with decent uptake given the pandemic and lack of access to hospital laboratory confirmations of H.Pylori which is needed for Talicia Rx.

The author notes the potential of Talicia at 1.4 billion in the USA alone, which should start showing itself once the pandemic is over. Yet calls this a boring company with not much upside even out to 5 years???

The NTM Phase III study itself would bring considerable extra value within the next 2-3 years if approved, despite likely significantly increasing Talicia sales. But it's a boring company with not much upside even out to 5 years???

Then the author completely missed out on the Covid potenial of Opaganib, which while another investor called this a wild card, did 100% completely inhibit Covid virus replication in a model of human lung tissue. USA data expected out in the next week or 2. This if positive would increase share price very handsomely and then if approved for emergency authorisation, would send the share price soaring I expect. But it's a boring company with not much upside even out to 5 years???

Seems this author has not really done as good of Due Diligence and understanding the company as he/she makes out.

While obviously not directly negative in its tone on the factual fundamentals of some of RDHL, the perspective on valuation seems mightily under-represented.