Ok, let's talk death. Yes, the chances of dying if you are hospitalized has gone down from 24% in March to 8% now. Wonderful progress.
7 day average of deaths worldwide was a new record of 9,879 yesterday, above the previous peak in April of 7,000.
In the US specifically, 7 day average of deaths is 1,580, below the highest in April of 2,250 but below June's high of 1,200. But, one week ago our 7 day average was 1,200. So it's gone up 30%, or 380 per day over a week. Which means in two weeks we may be at the 2,250 mark set in April. FDA won't even start looking at vaccine applications until 2 weeks from now (Dec 10). Deaths are a 15-20 day lagging indicator from cases. So, even with January 1 rollout of the vaccine everywhere (we won't have enough doses to go everywhere Jan 1, and 25% of people in NYC recently said they wouldn't take the vaccine, which I'm sure is even higher in the midwest), we still have at least 6 weeks of rising cases and 10 weeks of rising deaths. We could be seeing 4,000 deaths per day by Christmas. I surely hope not, but let's be honest, Thanksgiving is going to be a super spreader event. Currently, total hospitalizations are almost 50% higher than they were at the peak in April and July (85,000 vs. 60,000) and are going up by 10,000 per week. So by Christmas we could have 125,000 people hospitalized. Hospitals in Texas have brought in refrigerator trucks to store dead people. New York City is reopening the field hospital for covid patients.
I honestly hope I'm wrong.
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