Replies to post #44841 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[OldAIMGuy]

Good afternoon AIMS, Re: New Issues and IPO Index............

I've been keeping this data since January of 1982. There haven't been very many bearish signals from it but each has been followed on by a relatively flatish market as the new stocks are consolidated.

Median for this index is -0.17, Bearish above 2.4 and bullish below -1.8. Currently it's 4.13, so most definitely in its bearish territory. Bullish and bearish thresholds represent one standard deviation away from the median value. (roughly the top and bottom 10% of the database)

We've had other big surges in new issues where the total number has swelled by huge amounts. This one is somewhat modest but still bearish. When you think about it, when would you like to bring your company public? When average P/Es are 12 or when they're 22? Why get paid just $12 for each dollar of earnings when you can wait and get paid $22 for the same earnings. The current high P/Es encourage companies to "go public."

Best wishes,
OAG Tom