Replies to post #36095 on The New CS Board

[jumanji0881]

The Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst : https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-debt-bubble-going-burst

My comment: The housing bubble is huge. People can put as little as 3% down and pay less than 3% interest. That means a lot of qualified buyers which means housing prices through the roof. But when you lose your job, you lose your house.

Excerpts:
Uncontrolled virus infections will result in more partial or full lockdowns of intense social activity businesses including, hotels, restaurants, bars, theaters, sports stadiums, indoor arenas, offices, transit, airlines, hair salons, and personal services. An indication of what the U.S. may face soon is unfolding now in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.

However, Moody’s Analytics forecasts $70B in missed rental payments alone by 12.8M renters by January 2021. Confirming the 12.8M figure, a study by Joint Center For Housing Studies at Harvard reports that 12.1M renter households have at least one at-risk-industry worker. Due to the wide variance in estimates, we forecast at least $100B in rental and mortgage debt due in January 2021.

For investors, this is the time to prepare for a possible severe economic storm coming this winter. Scott Minerd, Global CIO at Guggenheim, observes that we have a pause now giving us time to prepare for an economic whirlwind:

“the relative calm we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye, it may seem like there is no storm at all…yet the worst is yet to come.”

[ahimsak]

Half the population will not be going where there are large crowds for a long time, or where they are in contact with others in close spaces. The other half will not care.

I am very cautious in some ways, not worried in others. I have a 6 year old son, so not allowing him to see any of his friends and be home 24/7 is not an option. I am 70, so I have to be very careful in most ways, even if am healthier than most americans half my age.

Bottom line: Covid related stocks will keep doing well for a long time. Like in 2000, some hyped plays will crumble and fall, others like AMZN will grow and dominate.

Semis is where I like to put my money, building blocks for everything else.

[ahimsak]

Half the population will not be going where there are large crowds for a long time, or where they are in contact with others in close spaces. The other half will not care.

I am very cautious in some ways, not worried in others. I have a 6 year old son, so not allowing him to see any of his friends and be home 24/7 is not an option. I am 70, so I have to be very careful in most ways, even if am healthier than most americans half my age.

Bottom line: Covid related stocks will keep doing well for a long time. Like in 2000, some hyped plays will crumble and fall, others like AMZN will grow and dominate.

Semis is where I like to put my money, building blocks for everything else.