Replies to post #640720 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Commons_Cancelled]

You're forgetting about Lamberth's Court (already Remanded). The JPS Claims there equate to roughly 150% of Par.

Don't be fooled by the Common [Non]sense. JPS are clearly in the driver's seat and have nowhere to go but up from here!

[kthomp19]

Nah, commons are pretty much at their floor

You don't seem to appreciate the sheer amount of dilution that is possible here. If the seniors really are converted to commons then they are going well under $1 and probably under $0.50 too.

And that's assuming that recap and release succeeds! If it fails then both the commons and juniors will sink, and the commons more so because their claims in court are far weaker.

JPS craters after Thanksgiving as people realize they are now at mercy of SCOTUS ruling and Biden administration

Everything you listed is at least as bad for the commons as the juniors. Contracts matter.




(from another post)

Deadline is Dec 9th -- if they plead before SCOTUS, then Treasury is doing nothing else like settling...

If the SCOTUS hearing happens, administrative action is dead in the Trump Presidency -- I think market action will reflect that

I agree. If Collins isn't settled before oral arguments, it tells me that this administration isn't really serious about recap and release after all. It would be a very bad sign for all FnF shareholders.

Question is how much JPS is worth on back of SCOTUS and Lamberth hearings alone? Not $9 for FNMAS for me at least cos the AIG=type ruling looms very, very large

I don't see how AIG applies. All the claims that survived Sweeney's dismissals are derivative, while the claims in the AIG case were direct.

Arguing that shareholders haven't suffered direct damages isn't hard using the same logic (FnF would have gone bankrupt; it only matters what the judge thinks there), but saying that the NWS didn't harm the companies is far harder (imo impossible) to prove.