There's no way of telling. And that way of thinking can get a person into a real fine mess in the market. The market can stay insane longer than you can stay solvent. Plus you never know what kind of tricks the insiders may be up to.
Don't rationalize yourself into losing money. Try to dig in and find out the actual reason(s) something happened the way it did, then watch and see if your theory has any predictive value on future events. Observe, modify, refine.
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