Aiming, Yes, buying at $1.25 seems like a reasonable bet, all things considered. At the very least a Neurodegenerative BP deal is almost certainly going to happen sometime in 2007. The only thing that could mess that up would be if it's with a no-name marginal pharma partner, in which case the positive effect on share price probably wouldn't materialize. More likely though, there should be some decent interest by a well known BP.
While unexpected curveballs are common in this sector, the most likely timeline scenario as I see it is as follows - 1) a shelf financing in January, 2) a CX-717 decision by Stoll in late Feb/early March that is a no-go for ADHD, but which keeps alive the possibilities for AD. 3) Also in Q1 will be the first of the non-Ampakine in-licenses. Then 4) the Neurodegenerative/high impacts BP deal by Summer.
Share price-wise the above scenarios might translate into - a) initially a modest January effect bounce to $1.50 or so in the next week or two, followed by b) some price swings around the time of the shelf financing which bring the price back down to current levels, then c) a modest relief bounce after the financing is over, followed by d) some weakness leading up to the late Feb/early March go/no go decision period, after which e) the price movement will depend on the actual decision. Somewhere along the way will be f) the non-Ampakine in-license announcement. Of course with so many variables, anything can happen. If you get in cheap enough though, like $1.25, then just sitting tight until Summer might be the best strategy. One thing with this stock though, if by some miracle we get a big move up again, then take at least something off the table.
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