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11/07/20 10:47 AM
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 3714 is immediately trading down about 39% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Presently, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in November is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 3364 intraday yet it remains trading back above that previous low of 3579 implying near-term strength.
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.
This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a bearish position with important overhead system resistance whereas we still have underlying support remaining on the monthly and weekly levels.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 3776 and support forming below at 3700. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 19th at 4190, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 7th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1971% in a stark panic type decline.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 19th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 4149 made back during the week of September 21st. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of August 24th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This decline has been rather important penetrating the previous low formed at 3613 yet the market closed above it just cleaning out the stops. This does not yet imply a shift in trend. We need to close below the previous low just technically to raise that possibility. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 4 months since the low established back in June.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 4378 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during August. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6565 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 1804 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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