I'd say, look back at the history of this company. What ever have they done that is significant? Buy a diabetes product developed by someone else, and sell it for years for significant losses? Miracles don't happen in the pink or gray sheets as far as actual significantly profitable products!
You are right about the possibility of a pump to allow people to unload.
You'd be betting that he has one more misleading pump that would fool shareholders into thinking this was going to be a valid approvable product. But lately, his pumps have hardly moved the stock. In other words, even in the lowly grays, people are seeing through this.
What would be an event to change minds? The CEO buying several million shares, in cash, in the market. You see, he hasn't bought a single share in many many years... 10? 15? Whatever. He KNOWS more than any of his shareholders that this company is not worth investing in, and shows it every day by his lack of investment! HIM BUYING SHARES IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! If he had ANY, I mean ANY thoughts of even a possibility that this would be an effective test, wouldn't he have bought tens of million of shares in February at 3 cents, before all his pumping? Of course he would have!
Meanwhile, instead of buying shares for himself, he had diluted this company, selling over 100 million shares, diluting the company BY OVER 50% in LESS THAN A YEAR!
You can be sure, absolutely sure, that this will never see approval to be sold in any profitable market! Can he end up selling 100 kits in Timbuktu, and tell the world "sales are great", while booking a loss on those sales? Possibly! Is that a reason to hold? No!