I agree that circumstantial evidence can sometimes lead to the wrong conclusion. But, it is wise to consider that there are all levels of circumstantial evidence, ranging from extremely far-fetched, to overwhelmingly likely. For example, if you were to arrive home after a summer vacation to find that there are several downed-trees in your neighborhood, debris strewn about the yards, and power is out, it would be circumstantial evidence to assume that there had been a recent storm. You didn't actually see the storm, which would be direct evidence, but you know enough about how the world works to be nearly certain that there was a storm.