Exactly right. This is why the Starr/AIG ruling is so important IF the warrants are ever exercised. The TAKING dores not occur until the claim becomes ripe, not at the time the SPSPA created the possibility it might happen some time before 2028. This overcomes the statute of limitations problem over new litigation being filed over warrants.
In any such case, the Constitution's Amendment 5 requires government to compensate eminent domain takings at fair market value to property owners which, in our case, would be shareholders of record, today.
What would fair market value be? The simplest formula would be 100% of what the government sells its 79.9% stake in the GSEs because this is an actual, present value number for what was taken. Good old Moelis calculated this at somewhere around $100 B. That would be something like $50 per share based on a combined common share float, today, of approximately 1.8 B FnF shares outstanding. But most interesting, government gives up everything it gets and nets NOTHING that benefits taxpayers, so why would they even bother? This is why I continue to believe the warrants will be sold back to FnF for some nominal amount.
The reason my recovery estimate is lower than yours is because current shareholders both get the compensation award... and... also keep the 20.1% of the equity they retain should the warrants get exercised.
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